← Back to Taxgebra
Complete Research Story
Source: ATO Taxation Statistics 2023–24 · ATO Tax Gap Program
ato.gov.au/about-ato/research-and-statistics · TPB Annual Report 2024–25
All figures from ATO published data · July 2026
Australian Tax Data · Primary Sources

The data behind
Taxgebra.

10 years of ATO Taxation Statistics. The ATO Tax Gap Program. TPB Annual Report 2024–25. All figures sourced directly from ATO published data at ato.gov.au and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. General information only — not financial or tax advice.

PAYG earners FY23–24
13.16M
Up from 10.78M in FY13–14. +22% in 10 years.
Total withheld FY23–24
$275.4B
Up from $151B in FY13–14. +82% over 10 years.
Total refunded FY23–24
$35.8B
Australians' own money, held interest-free all year.
Average refund FY23–24
$3,052
Full-year figure: $35.8B ÷ 11.74M recipients.
ATO individual tax gap
$12.5B
Uncollected from individuals FY22–23. ATO Tax Gap Program.
Part 1 of 5
The 10-Year PAYG Data — ATO Taxation Statistics

Source: ATO Taxation Statistics 2023–24, Table 1A — Selected items for income years 1978–79 to 2023–24, published at ato.gov.au. Q4 (average refund) and Q6 (% refunded) are calculated from the published figures. All other figures are directly from the ATO publication.

The Complete Master Table

All six questions. Exact ATO figures. Every year.

ATO Taxation Statistics 2023–24 — Table 1A: Selected Items · FY2013–14 to FY2023–24
Year Q1: PAYG EarnersQ2: WithheldQ3: Refunded Q4: Avg RefundQ5: No. RefundedQ6: % RefundedTotal Lodged
FY 2013–1410,780,034$151.0B$26.5B$2,47410,717,94299.4%12,773,441
FY 2014–1510,981,806$161.2B$27.4B$2,54310,784,66798.2%12,999,892
FY 2015–1611,201,274$169.0B$27.8B$2,55110,898,08697.3%13,271,975
FY 2016–1711,460,644$174.5B$28.6B$2,54811,238,51698.1%13,550,389
FY 2017–1811,756,222$187.0B$28.8B$2,54011,347,38296.5%13,883,675
FY 2018–19 ★ LMITO starts12,087,597$199.4B$35.9B$2,94812,165,629100.6%14,210,939
FY 2019–2012,308,793$211.1B$35.6B$2,91112,247,49699.5%14,413,979
FY 2020–2112,453,213$215.9B$36.9B$3,02112,199,86298.0%14,635,115
FY 2021–22 ★ LMITO peak12,976,514$235.9B$40.6B$3,20312,678,16297.7%15,041,158
FY 2022–23 ★ LMITO gone13,258,519$260.4B$35.3B$2,93911,997,24690.5%15,554,269
FY 2023–24 ★ Latest13,155,343$275.4B$35.8B$3,05211,735,60689.2%15,511,690
Source: ATO Taxation Statistics 2023–24, Table 1A — ato.gov.au/about-ato/research-and-statistics/in-detail/taxation-statistics/taxation-statistics-2023-24/ · Q4=Q3÷Q5 (calculated) · Q6=Q5÷Q1×100 (calculated) · Q6 exceeds 100% in FY18–19 as refund recipients include non-PAYG-only individuals · LMITO removed permanently from FY22–23
Q1 — PAYG Earners (M) · 10-Year Trend
10M 11M 12M 13M 10.78M 13.16M FY14FY18 FY22FY24 ↑ +2.375M earners over 10 years (+22%)
ATO Table 1A row 87: "Salary or wages — no."
Q2 — Total Withheld ($B) · 10-Year Trend
$140B $185B $230B $275B $151B $275.4B FY14FY18 FY22FY24 ↑ +$124.4B withheld in 10 years (+82%). Refunds grew only 35%.
ATO Table 1A row 298: "Total tax withheld — $"
Q3 — Total Refunded ($B) · LMITO effect clearly visible
$24B $29B $34B $39B $26.5B $35.9B $40.6B $35.3B $35.8B FY14 ↑LMITO ↓ends FY24 LMITO gone permanently. New structural baseline: $35.8B (Stage 3 tax cuts).
ATO Table 1A row 317: "Tax refundable — $" (shown positive)
Q4 — Average Refund ($) · Calculated Q3÷Q5
$2,300 $2,600 $2,900 $3,200 ~$2,540 baseline $2,474 $2,948 $3,203 $2,939 $3,052 FY14 ↑LMITO ↓ends FY24 ★ $3,052 is the correct figure. $2,548 was July 2025 first-month only.
Calculated from ATO Table 1A: "Tax refundable — $" ÷ "Tax refundable — no."
Q5 — Number Receiving a Refund (M)
10M 11M 12M 13M 10.72M 12.68M 12.00M 11.74M FY14FY22FY24 ↓ 940,000 fewer receiving refunds from LMITO peak to FY23–24
ATO Table 1A row 316: "Tax refundable — no."
Q6 — % of PAYG Earners Getting Refund · Most Dramatic Trend
85% 91% 94% 100% 100% 99.4% 100.6% 90.5% 89.2% FY14FY22FY24 ↓ 10 percentage points in 10 years — 1M+ Australians now owe tax in July
Calculated: "Tax refundable — no." ÷ "Salary or wages — no." × 100
The single most striking finding: In FY2013–14, 99.4% of PAYG salary earners received a refund. In FY2023–24 it is 89.2% — a 10 percentage point drop over 10 years. Over 1 million Australians now receive a tax bill in July instead of a refund. Without year-round tracking they find out too late to do anything about it. This is why Taxgebra exists.
Part 2 of 5
The Tax Gap — The ATO's Own Admission

ATO Tax Gap Program, Table 1. Published 3 November 2025. The ATO's own estimate of what goes uncollected from PAYG individuals — not through fraud, but through errors, poor records, and missed entitlements.

Net gap FY22–23
$12.5B
6.2% of theoretical tax. 12.2M PAYG individuals.
Work-related expenses gap
$3.7B
Single largest driver. Home office #1 adjusted item.
Undeclared income
$3.8B
Shadow economy, hidden wages. Not Taxgebra's audience.
Rental property gap
$1.5B
Apportionment errors, capital vs repairs.
ATO Table 1 — Income Tax Gap: Individuals Not in Business · FY2017–18 to FY2022–23
YearPopulationGross GapAmendmentsNet Gap $Expected CollectionsTheoretical LiabilityGross %Net %
FY 2017–1811.5M$11,143M$801M$10,342M$142,082M$152,424M7.3%6.8%
FY 2018–1911.8M$10,726M$701M$10,025M$146,508M$156,533M6.9%6.4%
FY 2019–2011.9M$11,402M$566M$10,836M$153,954M$164,791M6.9%6.6%
FY 2020–2111.8M$11,394M$794M$10,600M$153,713M$164,313M6.9%6.5%
FY 2021–2211.8M$13,090M$1,025M$12,066M$166,743M$178,809M7.3%6.7%
FY 2022–23 ★ Latest12.2M$14,125M$1,610M$12,515M$190,461M$202,976M7.0%6.2%
Source: ATO Tax Gap Program — Table 1. ato.gov.au/about-ato/research-and-statistics/in-detail/tax-gap/ · Published 3 November 2025.
Returns adjusted in audit
68%
Of 1,090 randomly audited returns. Agent: 79%. Self: 54%.
Avg item adjustments per return
2.7
Multiple small errors, not one big one. Median increase to taxable income: $1,200.
Adjusted in taxpayer's favour
52
Of 1,090 cases — 5% were underclaiming. The Taxgebra audience.
Why adjustments happen — work-related expenses (% of all WRE adjustments, ATO Random Enquiry Program)
Substantiation failure (no records)
38%
Nexus + substantiation failure
27%
Nexus only (no link to income)
9%
Calculation error
8%
Over-claimed
6%
Source: ATO Tax Gap Program, Figure 4. Most commonly adjusted work-related item: "other expenses" = home office, mobile phone, internet. Data from ATO Random Enquiry Program 2020–21 to 2021–22.
38% fail on substantiation. The expense was legitimate. They just couldn't prove it — no diary, no receipts, no logbook. Taxgebra tracks WFH hours and expenses in real time throughout the year. This is the single biggest solvable problem in the ATO's own data.
Part 3 of 5
The Deduction Gap — What Australians Leave Behind

ATO Taxation Statistics 2023–24, Tables 6, 7, 8, 10. Published June 2026. ato.gov.au/about-ato/research-and-statistics/in-detail/taxation-statistics/taxation-statistics-2023-24/

ATO Table 6 — Selected Deductions · FY22–23 vs FY23–24
DeductionFY22–23 ClaimantsFY23–24 ClaimantsFY23–24 AvgFY23–24 MedianAvg − Median Gap
Work-related expenses10,321,49110,678,121$2,956$1,434$1,522 ⚠
Tax affairs management6,067,2286,259,076$389$205$184
Gifts or donations4,480,6704,625,076$932$150$782
Personal super contributions ★679,004784,666$18,699$15,000Only 6% of earners!
Interest deductions145,342161,719$5,729$300$5,429
Total deductions16,108,84316,584,287$3,565$971$2,594 ⚠
Source: ATO Taxation Statistics 2023–24, Table 6. ato.gov.au/about-ato/research-and-statistics/in-detail/taxation-statistics/taxation-statistics-2023-24/ · 784,666 ÷ 13,155,343 salary earners = 5.96%. 94% of salary earners didn't use this deduction.
Median $971 vs average $3,565 — the $2,594 gap
Half of all Australian lodgers claim under $971 in total deductions. The average is $3,565. The gap is not because most are ineligible — it is because they don't know, don't keep records, or find out too late. This is what Taxgebra closes.
Only 6% used their biggest deduction
784,666 Australians made personal super contributions — 6% of 13.2M salary earners. Average: $18,699. Tax saved at 30%: $5,610. Tax saved at 37%: $6,919. 94% left this on the table. Carry-forward caps mean unused years accumulate — potentially $137,500+ accessible in one hit.
2.3M property investors — 54.2% negatively geared
1,266,454 negatively geared in FY23–24 (up from 49.4% the prior year). Average deduction ~$8,700 = $2,610 tax saving at 30%. Most common errors: incorrect loan interest apportionment, repairs vs capital works, no depreciation report.
885,087 paying Medicare Levy Surcharge unnecessarily
Average MLS paid: $1,284. Total: ~$1.14B collectively. Most could eliminate it with basic hospital cover costing less than the surcharge. Taxgebra surfaces this immediately on setup — a known, identifiable, fixable expense.
WFH Deduction at 70c/hr (ATO Fixed Rate from 1 July 2024) × 48 working weeks
1 day/week (384 hrs/yr)
$269
2 days/week (768 hrs/yr)
$538
3 days/week (1,152 hrs/yr)
$806
4 days/week (1,536 hrs/yr)
$1,075
5 days/week (1,920 hrs/yr)
$1,344
Tax saved on 3-day WFH claim ($806 deduction)
At 16% rate (income ≤$45K)
$129
At 30% rate ($45K–$135K)
$242
At 37% rate ($135K–$190K)
$298
At 45% rate ($190K+)
$363
Source: ATO Fixed Rate Method — ato.gov.au/individuals-and-families/income-deductions-offsets-and-records/deductions-you-can-claim/working-from-home-expenses · 70c/hr from 1 July 2024. Contemporaneous records required — no year-end reconstruction accepted.
Part 4 of 5
The Accountant Gap & The Privacy Argument

TPB Annual Report 2024–25 · ATO Taxation Statistics 2023–24 · ACAPS 2026 · Honeycomb Tax Strategy Survey 2024 · RFI Global Digital Banking Report 2026.

46,900
Registered tax agents in Australia (30 June 2025)
TPB Annual Report 2024–25. Serving ~9.6M individual lodgers = 205 per agent — before business, trust and SMSF clients.
62.1%
Individual returns lodged via tax agent in FY23–24
ATO Chart 7. 9.6M via agent. 37.5% via myTax. One of the highest agent-use rates among OECD nations.
$100–$290
Standard individual return fee — ~1 hour per year
That hour delivers lodgement. Not year-round tracking. Not carry-forward identification. Not PAYG variation. Not salary sacrifice modelling.
11 months
The gap Taxgebra fills
The agent meeting is July. Every tax-reducing strategy deadline is February through June. Taxgebra works the 11 months nobody else covers.
75%
Australians prefer data privacy over personalisation
Honeycomb Strategy, Brands Beyond Breaches 2024. 90% demand transparency in how personal data is handled.
13%
Trust in organisations with biometric data
ACAPS 2026 — down from 24% in 2023. Steepest single-year trust decline recorded. Optus, Medibank, Latitude breaches drove this.
94%
Australians have concerns about using AI with their bank
RFI Global 2026. Privacy and data security: 37%. Accuracy: 30%. Loss of human support: 29%.
10%
Say organisations' data practices are usually fair
ACAPS 2026. The lowest recorded trust in data practices. Architectural privacy is the only credible response — not a policy that can change.
Taxgebra's position on both: Not competing with accountants — filling the 11 months between visits. Not a privacy policy — an architectural fact. Every calculation runs in the user's browser. No server. No database. Nothing to breach. This is not a differentiator. It is a prerequisite for trust in the current Australian environment.
Part 5 of 5
The Complete Argument — Why Taxgebra Exists

Everything we established in this conversation about why $3,052 back is not the full story — built from the real examples, the real data, and the four-layer answer we developed together.

The Three Real User Examples (Built In This Session)
Sarah — Teacher · $85K · WFH 3 days
ItemMissedTax saved
Home office (no records)$806-
Union fees (forgot)$800-
Professional dev.$600-
Total left behind$2,206$662
Tax saved at 30% marginal rate. Got her $3,052 refund. Left $662 on the counter.
David — IT Manager · $135K · No property
ItemMissedTax saved
Salary sacrifice ($12K)$12,000-
Carry-forward (3 yrs)$50,000+-
Annual tax left behind$12,000$4,440
Tax saved at 37%. $4,440 left on the counter — every single year. Carry-forward caps expiring unused.
Maria — Marketing · $94K · 1 investment property
ItemMissedTax saved
Depreciation report$6,500-
PAYG variation$1,920 flow-
Negative gearing partial$1,200-
Total left behind$7,700$2,310
Tax saved at 30%. $2,310 left on the counter from two things she just never set up.
The Four-Layer Answer
1
The refund is your own money. Getting it back is not a win.
$275.4B withheld. $35.8B returned. The ATO held the rest interest-free while CPI ran at 4.6%. The goal is not a bigger refund in July — it is paying the right amount every fortnight via PAYG variation.
2
$3,052 is what people got. Not what they were entitled to.
Median total deductions: $971. Average: $3,565. Gap: $2,594. ATO's own audit data: $12.5B uncollected annually. 94% of salary earners didn't use personal super contributions. 5% of audit cases were adjusted upward — people who underclaimed.
3
Timing. Every strategy has a 30 June deadline.
By July every decision has been made or missed. Salary sacrifice, super top-ups, carry-forward contributions, pre-paid interest, PAYG variation, depreciation reports — all require action before 30 June. Taxgebra surfaces these in November, February, April — when there is still time.
Salary sacrifice — $2,000–$8,000Closed in July
Personal super — $5,610 at 30%Closed in July
Carry-forward cap — up to $41,250Closed in July
PAYG variation — monthly flowYear already lost
4
940,000 Australians now owe money in July. They had no warning.
Refund rate: 99.4% (FY13–14) → 89.2% (FY23–24). 10 percentage points. 1 million+ Australians receive a bill instead of a refund. Taxgebra tells them their position in February — not July.
The One-Sentence Thesis
"The $3,052 average refund is proof the system works. The $12.5 billion tax gap, the 940,000 new tax-owing Australians, and the 94% of salary earners not using their biggest available deduction — those are proof Taxgebra is needed."
The $49 Economic Case — Launch Price
Launch price
$49
Per year (was $99). Tax-deductible as work-related or investment management expense.
Effective cost at 30%
$34.30
$49 × 0.70. Median earner bracket.
Effective cost at 37%
$30.87
$49 × 0.63. Salary $135K–$190K.
Effective cost at 45%
$26.95
$49 × 0.55. Paid for before finding a single strategy.
DATA SOURCES

ATO Taxation Statistics 2023–24, Table 1A — ato.gov.au/about-ato/research-and-statistics/in-detail/taxation-statistics/taxation-statistics-2023-24/ · Published June 2026. Figures: total refunds $35.8B across 11.74M recipients (avg $3,052).
ATO Tax Gap Program, Table 1 — ato.gov.au/about-ato/research-and-statistics/in-detail/tax-gap/ · Published 3 November 2025.
ATO Taxation Statistics 2023–24, Tables 6, 7, 8, 10 — same publication as above. Lodgement types: 62.1% agent, 37.5% myTax, 0.4% other.
Tax Practitioners Board Annual Report 2024–25 — tpb.gov.au · 46,900 registered tax agents.
ACAPS Tax Compliance & Planning Survey 2026 · Honeycomb Tax Strategy Report 2024 · RFI Global Digital Banking Report 2026 · Xero Tax Confidence Index 2025 · Vanguard Australia Investor Research 2026 · H&R Block Australia 2024 · ABS Labour Cost Index March 2026.
ATO Fixed Rate Method (WFH) — ato.gov.au/individuals-and-families/income-deductions-offsets-and-records/deductions-you-can-claim/working-from-home-expenses · 70c/hr from 1 July 2024.

General information only. Not financial or tax advice. Consult a registered tax agent (tpb.gov.au) before acting. © 2026 Taxgebra.